There are signs investors are increasingly bullish, as the U.S. economy appears headed for a soft landing and inflation cools. However markets are already priced for an improving outlook for growth, suggesting some investors could be in for disappointment in the coming months, says Christian Mueller-Glissmann, head of asset allocation research within portfolio strategy at Goldman Sachs Research.
Amid the recent surge in US interest rates, whether the greater interest expense associated with higher-for-longer rates will lead to distress or even a wave of defaults across the major parts of the corporate credit market—corporate America, commercial real estate (CRE), and the private market—and the economic and market implications are Top of Mind.
The contraction of the German economy, which has made it a laggard among developed nations this year, has many causes. Growth has been hurt by the uneven post-pandemic recovery in China, by energy shortages, by inflationary pressures and more. Now, Europe’s largest economy faces multiple transitions necessary to address these challenges, according to Wolfgang Fink, CEO of Goldman Sachs for Germany and Austria.
Germany slipped into a technical recession earlier this year as the country struggles with a weaker manufacturing sector, high inflation and a war on its doorsteps. In this episode, Wolfgang Fink, CEO of Goldman Sachs for Germany and Austria, explains how German companies and investors are adapting to the macro and market pressures.
Innovations in electricity and personal computers unleashed investment booms of as much as 2% of U.S. GDP as the technologies were adopted into the broader economy. Now, investment in artificial intelligence is ramping up quickly and could eventually have an even bigger impact on GDP, according to Goldman Sachs Economics Research.
More than any other advanced economy, the U.K. has been squeezed by sharply higher prices, but new data shows that inflation may be starting to fall. In this episode, Goldman Sachs Research’s Jari Stehn, chief European economist, and George Cole, head of European rates strategy, explain why the U.K. faces a “confluence of shocks,” why inflation is likely to remain elevated, and what the implications of the U.K.’s inflation problems may mean for yields across the Euro area and globally.